前言...................................................... 1
1．背景介紹................................................ 3
1．1 世界汽車、能源及環(huán)境概況........................................................................3
1．1．1 世界汽車保有量發(fā)展概況......................................................................3
1．1．2 能源概況..................................................................................................4
1．1．3 環(huán)境概況..................................................................................................5
1．1．4 清潔汽車發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀..................................................................................6
1．２中國汽車、能源及環(huán)境概況.......................................................................8
1．2．1汽車保有量及分類構(gòu)成...........................................................................8
1．2．2 能源概況..................................................................................................9
1．2．3環(huán)境概況.................................................................................................10
1．2．4 清潔汽車發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀................................................................................10
2．各類清潔汽車的技術(shù)發(fā)展狀況分析........................... 12
2．1 燃氣汽車(LPG汽車和CNG汽車)...............................................................12
2．2醇類燃料（甲醇、乙醇）汽車...................................................................16
2．2．1醇類汽車排放特性分析.........................................................................16
2．2．2醇類燃料發(fā)動機技術(shù)發(fā)展狀況.............................................................18
2．2．3二甲基醚（DME）燃料簡介................................................................18
2．3混合動力汽車...............................................................................................19
2．3．1混合動力汽車的技術(shù)特性.....................................................................19
2．3．2中國混合動力汽車研究狀況.................................................................20
2．4電動汽車.......................................................................................................20
2．4．1電動汽車技術(shù)的瓶頸.............................................................................21
2．4．2中國電動汽車技術(shù)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀.................................................................22
2．5燃料電池汽車...............................................................................................23
2．5．1燃料電池技術(shù)特性.................................................................................23
2．5．2各國燃料電池汽車開發(fā)現(xiàn)狀.................................................................24
3．各類清潔汽車的環(huán)境和能源效益分析......................... 26
3．1 LPG汽車......................................................................................................26
3．1．1 LPG轎車的排放控制水平....................................................................26
3．1．2 LPG重型發(fā)動機（包括公交車用發(fā)動機）的排放控制水平............28
3．2 CNG汽車.....................................................................................................29
3．2．1 CNG轎車的排放控制水平...................................................................29
3．2．2 CNG公交車的排放控制水平...............................................................30
3．3醇類汽車的排放控制水平...........................................................................31
3．3．1甲醇汽車的排放控制水平.....................................................................31
3．3．2 乙醇汽車的排放控制水平....................................................................31
3．4混合動力、電動及燃料電池汽車的排放控制水平...................................32
3．4．1混合動力汽車的排放控制水平.............................................................32
3．4．2電動汽車的排放控制水平.....................................................................32
3．4．3燃料電池汽車的排放控制水平.............................................................33
3．5各種清潔汽車溫室氣體（CO2）排放的控制水平....................................34
3．5．1交通領(lǐng)域控制溫室氣體現(xiàn)狀.................................................................34
3．5．2各種清潔汽車溫室氣體排放水平.........................................................34
3．6各類清潔汽車的能源效益分析...................................................................35
3．6．1清潔汽車的燃油經(jīng)濟性.........................................................................35
3．6．2發(fā)展清潔汽車與優(yōu)化能源結(jié)構(gòu).............................................................36
4 影響中國清潔汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)化的因素分析.......................... 37
4．1．激勵性因素...............................................................................................37
4．1．1日益嚴重的大氣污染促使政府積極采取對策.....................................37
4．1．2全民環(huán)保意識不斷增強.........................................................................37
4．1．3環(huán)境保護法規(guī)日益嚴格和完善.............................................................38
4．1．4巨大的市場需求為清潔汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)化提供廣闊空間.............................39
4．1．5中國能源結(jié)構(gòu)亟待改善.........................................................................40
4．2制約性因素...................................................................................................40
4．2．1關(guān)鍵技術(shù)不成熟.....................................................................................40
4．2．2清潔汽車的制造成本較高.....................................................................40
4．2．3基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施不夠完善，需要大量投資.....................................................41
4．2．4技術(shù)標準缺乏.........................................................................................41
4．2．5 管理制度和相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)政策不完善........................................................42
5中國清潔汽車技術(shù)發(fā)展路徑.................................. 43
5．1 技術(shù)發(fā)展路徑設(shè)計......................................................................................43
5．1．1遵循的原則及考慮的主要因素.............................................................43
5．1．2技術(shù)路徑的確定.....................................................................................44
5．2 技術(shù)路徑一..................................................................................................47
5．2．1 短期（2001~2005年）主要任務(wù)和目標.............................................47
5．2．2中期（2006~2010年）主要任務(wù)和目標..............................................49
5．2．3長期（2011年~）主要任務(wù)和目標.......................................................49
5．3 技術(shù)路徑二..................................................................................................50
5．3．1 短期(2000~2005年)主要任務(wù)和目標..................................................50
5．3．2 中期（2006~2010年）主要任務(wù)和目標............................................50
5．3．3 長期（2011年~）主要任務(wù)和目標.....................................................51
6．中國發(fā)展清潔汽車的環(huán)境及能源效益......................... 52
6．1汽車保有量預測...........................................................................................52
6．1．1汽車的分類標準.....................................................................................52
6．1．2預測參數(shù)及預測方法.............................................................................53
6．1．3北京市汽車保有量預測.........................................................................54
6．1．4 12個試點城市汽車保有量預測............................................................55
6．1．5 全國汽車保有量預測............................................................................55
6．2 清潔汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的環(huán)境效益評估..................................................................59
6．2．1 環(huán)境效益評估的基本前提和假設(shè)........................................................59
6．2．2排放效益模型構(gòu)建與參數(shù)測算.............................................................59
6．2．3北京市清潔汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的環(huán)境效益案例分析.........................................62
6．2．4清潔汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的環(huán)境效益評估---“12個示范城市” ...........................63
6．2．5清潔汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的環(huán)境效益評估---全國范圍.........................................65
6．3能源效益分析...............................................................................................66
6．3．1燃油經(jīng)濟性.............................................................................................66
6．3．2清潔汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)對能源結(jié)構(gòu)的影響分析.................................................66
7 促進中國清潔汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的政策建議........................ 67
7．1 清潔汽車政策現(xiàn)狀及存在問題分析..........................................................67
7．1．1政策現(xiàn)狀.................................................................................................67
7．1．2存在問題.................................................................................................71
7．1．3政策建議的著眼點.................................................................................72
7．2政策建議.......................................................................................................72
7．2．1研究制定“國家未來汽車發(fā)展計劃”.................................................72
7．2．2制定更加嚴格的分階段排放限制法規(guī).................................................73
7．2．3研究制定分階段車輛燃油消耗限值標準或法規(guī).................................74
7．2．4 制定合理、有效的財稅優(yōu)惠政策。....................................................74
7．2．5逐步建立與國際接軌的標準體系。.....................................................75
7．2．6 研究開征汽車排放污染治理稅的可能性............................................76
7．2．7
研究制定并逐步強制實施不同用途的車輛清潔汽車使用化率的規(guī)劃和法規(guī)
...............................................................................................................................76
7．2．8研究建立合理的投融資體制.................................................................77
7．2．9 制定對汽車企業(yè)的引導約束政策........................................................77
7．2．10 改善汽車交通行駛狀況，加快ITS建設(shè)............................................77
7．2．11廣泛開展國際合作...............................................................................78
7．2．12進行廣泛科普宣傳，輿論進行正確引導...........................................78
7．2．13 理順推動清潔汽車發(fā)展的運作機制..................................................79
8結(jié)束語.................................................. 80
參考文獻................................................. 81
